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Post-Brexit: Hur påverkas Nordsjön (fiskbestånd och marin natur) om Brexit förhandlingarna misslyckas?
På uppdrag av WWF har University och Strathclyde (Science - Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics)
gjort en modellering över vad som kan hända med fiskebestånden i Nordsjön och marin natur om Storbritannien och EU misslyckas i Brexit att nå överesnkommelse om kvoter och acess för EU till brittisk vatten.
Rapporten har titeln:
Risk to North Sea fish stocks and wildlife if post-Brexit fishery negotiations fail to reach agreement on quotas and acess to UK waters - extended technical report
SUMMARY
“Taking back control of fisheries” became one of the totemic issues uniting supporters of the campaign to leave the EU. Having left, the issue is again high on the agenda in the ‘future relationship’ negotiations. The UK Government has indicated that getting a better deal for UK fishermen is a “red line” in the negotiations. This includes increases in quota for UK vessels, and restrictions on access to UK waters by foreign vessels. However, the EU has linked access to UK waters and maintenance of quotas enshrined in the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) with securing tariff-free trade in fish and other products. This report focuses on the North Sea and provides an assessment of the risks to stock and ecosystem conservation associated with the post-Brexit fisheries negotiations. The report first sets out the history behind the allocation of quota shares (Relative Stability) and compares the UK shares with those under proposed alternative rules based on the distribution of fish (“zonal attachment”). Unless a negotiated agreement can be reached to resolve these different views on quota allocation there is a risk that unilateral actions will result in the combined catches by all states exceeding the levels required for long-term maximum sustainable yields. The report sets out a narrative for the impact of such unilateralism on harvesting rates, and then presents results from models which show the risks that these would pose for key fish stocks and wildlife.
Key conclusions from the report
Overall, the report demonstrates the importance of international adherence to scientific advice on catch limits for shared fish stocks. It is vital that the UK, EU and other coastal states such as Norway reach an agreement that that preserves cooperation on fisheries, even in the face of political pressure to act independently for short term gain. Otherwise, the outcome will be overfishing, eventual collapse of key stocks, declines in seabird and cetacean numbers, placing further pressure on the UK’s coastal communities that rely on a healthy marine environment to survive. The potential risk to North Sea cod stocks identified in the report is of particular concern. The modelling indicates a 75% risk of cod stocks falling below sustainable limits if the UK and other nation states set their quotas unilaterally. It is also concerning that a unilateralist outcome is expected to lead to declines in seabird and cetacean numbers. The UK Government has identified the conservation of marine wildlife for future generations as a key action. These populations are already under pressure from climate change and a diversity of human activities so it would be detrimental to add further pressure from overfishing. The findings highlight the need for the UK to have an effective, independent environmental watchdog to ensure fishing limits are set at sustainable levels.
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